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Our methodology avoids two pitfalls of previous macroeconomic analyses: structural breaks at the zero lower bound and potential misspecification of output and inflation dynamics.
List of External Scholarships for College -
While theory predicts that the equilibrium real interest rate, r*, and the perceived trend in inflation, pi*, are fundamental determinants of the yield curve, macro-finance models generally treat them as constant. It fundamentally changes estimated risk premiums in long-term bond yields, leads to large gains in predictions of excess bond returns and long-range out-of-sample forecasts of interest rates, and captures a substantial share of interest rate variability at low frequencies.
Scholarships - ANU
We show that accounting for time-varying macro trends is critical for understanding the empirical dynamics of U. Researchers have debated the extent of the decline in the steady-state short-term real interest rate—that is, in the so-called equilibrium or natural rate of interest.
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First, actual bond prices are summarized by interpolated synthetic zero-coupon yields, and second, a small set of these yields are used as the source data for further empirical examination.
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