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Analysis of the term structure of interest rates almost always takes a two-step approach.
Our methodology avoids two pitfalls of previous macroeconomic analyses: structural breaks at the zero lower bound and potential misspecification of output and inflation dynamics.
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To illustrate the feasibility and desirability of the onestep approach, we compare arbitrage-free dynamic term structure models estimated using both approaches.
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While theory predicts that the equilibrium real interest rate, r*, and the perceived trend in inflation, pi*, are fundamental determinants of the yield curve, macro-finance models generally treat them as constant. It fundamentally changes estimated risk premiums in long-term bond yields, leads to large gains in predictions of excess bond returns and long-range out-of-sample forecasts of interest rates, and captures a substantial share of interest rate variability at low frequencies.
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